Mercado de Trabajo

Documentos Mercado de Trabajo

Moral Hazard versus Liquidity and the Optimal Timing of Unemployment Benefits

dt2017-10 | Rodolfo G. Campos, J. Ignacio García-Pérez, Iliana Reggio, 10/07/2017

We show that an unemployment insurance scheme in which unemployment benefits decrease over the unemployment spell allows to separately estimate the liquidity and moral hazard effects of unemployment insurance. We empirically estimate these effects using Spanish administrative data in a Regression Kink De- sign (RKD) that exploits two kinks in the schedule of unemployment benefits with respect to prior labor income. We derive a “sufficient statistics” formula for the optimal level of unemployment benefits that generalizes results by Chetty (2008) for the case in which unemployment benefits are allowed to vary over the unem- ployment spell. We find that during the first six months of the unemployment spell moral hazard effects dominate liquidity effects and that the benefits of un- employment insurance are low relative to the costs. On the other hand, after the initial six months, liquidity effects explain about three quarters of the change in hazard rates, raising the value of providing insurance in that period.

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Assessing the Impact of a Minimum Income Scheme in the Basque Country

eee2017-16 | Sara de La Rica, Lucía Gorjón, 03/07/2017

In this paper we assess the impact of a Minimum Income Scheme (MIS) which has been operating in the Basque Country, one of Spain’s 17 regions, for more than twenty years. In particular, we test whether the policy delays entry into employment for recipients. In addition, we test the efficacy of policies aimed at enabling recipients of the MIS to re-enter employment. Our results indicate that on average the Minimum Income Scheme, in addition to preventing social exclusion by providing financial support, does not delay entry into employment. However, the impact differs from one demographic group to another. Furthermore, Active Labour Market Policies designed for this group, in particular training, have a strong positive impact on finding a new job.

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Great Recession and Disability Insurance in Spain

dt2017-08 | Sergi Jiménez-Martín, Arnau Juanmarti Mestres, Judit Vall Castelló, 05/06/2017

In this paper, we exploit the strong incidence of the Great Recession in Spain to estimate the effect of economic conditions on participation in Disability Insurance (DI). Using individual panel data, we show that increases in the local unemployment rate are associated with a reduction in the individual probability to enter the DI program during the Great Recession in Spain. Using aggregate data on applications, we show that this procyclical behavior of DI awards comes from an increase in the proportion of applications that are denied. Thus, contrary to the previous literature that has extensively reported a countercyclical behavior of DI participation, our results provide new evidence that, in periods of extremely recessionary conditions, DI participation may turn procyclical.

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Una Serie Homogénea de Vacantes: la Curva de Beveridge en España, 1980-2016

eee2017-11 | José E. Boscá, Rafael Doménech, Javier Ferri, José R. García, 16/05/2017

En este artículo construimos una serie homogénea de vacantes para la economía española desde 1980 a 2016, lo que nos permite realizar un análisis de los efectos del ciclo económico sobre la relación entre desempleo y vacantes. La metodología empleada requiere un enlace entre la antigua serie de vacantes del INEM y la nueva serie de Eurostat, para lo que utilizamos la información procedente de la Encuesta de Coyuntura Laboral. El análisis de esta nueva serie homogénea muestra que la curva de Beveridge se desplazó entre 2008 y 2009 debido a la menor eficiencia del proceso de emparejamiento entre vacantes y desempleados, lo que explicaría entre un 31 % de la caída del empleo y un 55 % de la disminución del PIB en el momento más acentuado de la crisis. La evidencia ofrecida muestra que, desde 2014, la curva de Beveridge estaría recuperando gradualmente su posición anterior a la crisis, con la consiguiente disminución de la tasa de desempleo.

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Hiring subsidies for people with disabilities: Do they work?

fpp2017-11 | Sergi Jiménez-Martín, Arnau Juanmarti Mestres, Judit Vall Castelló, 03/05/2017

This article evaluates the effectiveness of hiring subsidies targeted to people with disabilities. By exploiting the timing of implementation among the different Spanish regions of a subsidy scheme implemented in Spain during the period 1990-2014, we employ a differencesin-differences approach to estimate the impact of the scheme on the probability of DI beneficiaries of transiting to employment and on the propensity of individuals of entering the DI program.

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Perfilado de parados: una propuesta de herramienta para los servicios públicos de empleo

fpp2017-10 | Florentino Felgueroso, J. Ignacio García-Pérez, Sergi Jiménez-Martín, Brindusa Anghel, 24/04/2017

En este documento se presenta una propuesta para desarrollar una herramienta estadística que permita realizar un diagnóstico de la empleabilidad de los demandantes registrados en los servicios públicos de empleo (SPE) y facilite la gestión de las políticas activas y la asignación de itinerarios con criterios de eficacia y eficiencia.

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Población Especialmente Vulnerable ante el Empleo en España. Cuantificación y Caracterización

eee2017-07 | Florentino Felgueroso, Ana Millán, Manuel Torres, 27/03/2017

Aunque la economía española ha entrado en una fase de recuperación, todavía existe un número importante de personas que sigue sufriendo graves dificultades en su acceso al mundo laboral con el consiguiente riesgo de pobreza y exclusión. Entre estas personas, a las que en el presente estudio se denomina especialmente vulnerables ante el empleo, están los parados de larga duración pero también otros colectivos clasificados como inactivos pese a su deseo de trabajar y trabajadores con condiciones precarias de empleo. En el presente estudio se define el concepto de vulnerabilidad ante el empleo y se ofrece una cuantificación y caracterización del colectivo afectado. La definición de vulnerabilidad se liga también a la pertenencia a hogares con ingresos bajos y a la elevada probabilidad de mantenerse en una situación precaria durante al menos un año.

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Una primera evaluación del impacto sobre la salida del desempleo de las políticas activas ofrecidas por los servicios públicos de empleo en España

fpp2017-07 | J. Ignacio García-Pérez, 14/03/2017

En el presente trabajo se analiza el impacto sobre la empleabilidad de los demandantes de trabajo de cuatro servicios ofrecidos por las oficinas públicas de empleo en España: los de orientación sobre Técnicas de Búsqueda de Empleo, Orientación Profesional, Itinerario Personalizado y Tutoría Individual.

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Statistical Discrimination and the Efficiency of Quotas

dt2017-04 | J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, Juan-José Ganuza, Paola Profeta, 02/03/2017

We develop a statistical discrimination model a la Cornel and Welch (1996) where groups of workers (males-females) differ in the observability of their productivity signals. We assume that the informativeness of the productivity signals depends on the match between the potential worker and the interviewer: when both parties have similar backgrounds, the signal is likely to be more informative. Under this “homo-accuracy” bias, the group that is most represented in the evaluation committee generates more accurate signals, and, consequently, has a greater incentive to invest in human capital. This generates a discrimination trap. If, for some exogenous reason, one group is initially poorly evaluated (less represented into the evaluation committee), this translates into lower investment in human capital of individuals of such group, which leads to lower representation in the evaluation committee in the future, generating a persistent discrimination process. We explore this dynamic process and show that quotas may be effective to deal with this discrimination trap. In particular, we show that introducing a quota allows to reach a steady state equilibrium with a higher welfare than the one obtained in the decentralized equilibrium in which talented workers of the discriminated group decide not to invest in human capital.

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Are the Spanish Long-Term Unemployed Unemployable?

eee2017-02 | Samuel Bentolila, J. Ignacio García-Pérez, Marcel Jansen, 09/02/2017

Long-term unemployment reached unprecedented levels in Spain in the wake of the Great Recession and it still affects around 57% of the unemployed. We document the sources that contributed to the rise in long-term unemployment and analyze its persistence using state-of-the-art duration models. We find pervasive evidence of negative duration dependence, while personal characteristics such as mature age, lack of experience, and entitlement to unemployment benefits are key to understand the cross-sectional differences in the incidence of long-term unemployment. The negative impact of low levels of skill and education is muted by the large share of temporary contracts, but once we restrict attention to employment spells lasting at least one month these factors also contribute to a higher risk of long-term unemployment. Surprisingly, workers from the construction sector do not fare worse than similar workers from other sectors. Finally, self-reported reservation wages are found to respond strongly to the cycle, but much less to individual unemployment duration. In view of these findings, we argue that active labour market policies should play a more prominent role in the fight against long-term unemployment while early activation should be used to curb inflows.

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El Modelo de Perfilado Estadístico: una herramienta eficiente para caracterizar a los demandantes de empleo

dt2017-01 | Yolanda F. Rebollo-Sanz, 30/01/2017

Desde los años 90, en la mayoría de los países de la OCDE se han ido introduciendo herramientas de perfilado (profiling) diseñadas para evaluar los niveles de empleabilidad de los demandantes de empleo así como para caracterizar sus necesidades específicas de apoyo en la búsqueda de trabajo. En el presente estudio se ofrece una panorámica de la literatura sobre el tema con especial atención a los modelos de perfilado estadístico. Se discuten los distintos tipos de modelos existentes, sus ventajas y desventajas, la evidencia disponible sobre su efectividad y la experiencia de los países en los que se han adoptado herramientas de este tipo.

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The Impact of the 2012 Spanish Labour Market Reform on Unemployment Inflows and Outflows: a Regression Discontinuity Analysis using Duration Models

fpp2016-27 | J. Ignacio García-Pérez, Josep Mestres Domènech, 20/12/2016

This paper studies the impact of the 2012 Spanish labour market reform on the probability of exiting and entering unemployment using a regression discontinuity approach based on duration models. The 2012 reform modified important aspects of hiring and dismissal procedures in Spain and, by doing that, affected the probability of exiting both unemployment and employment. Comparing labour market performance before and after February 2012 and using a competing risk duration model for the exit from both unemployment and employment, we find that the reform has helped employment creation in two ways. First, it has increased the likelihood of exiting from unemployment to employment by making the monthly transition to permanent employment to increase from 1.7% to 2.6%, on average, for the first six months in unemployment. Secondly, it has reduced the probability of dismissal for workers on a temporary contract, especially among small firms, probably because they are using newly introduced internal flexibility measures in order to adjust the workforce, instead of using dismissals. The direct transition from temporary to permanent positions is also eased by the reform. Finally, we do not find any significant effect of the reform on the dismissal patterns for permanent workers. These findings point to a positive effect of the reform in dampening the widespread segmentation of the Spanish labour market, although the impact is so far small, which means that more effort will be needed in order to substantially reduce the strong duality of this labour market.

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Family Job Search and Wealth: The Added Worker Effect Revisited

dt2016-10 | J. Ignacio García-Pérez, Sílvio Rendon, 29/11/2016

We develop and estimate a model of family job search and wealth accumulation. Individuals' job finding and job separations depend on their partners' job turnover and wages as well as common wealth. We fit this model to data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). This dataset reveals a very asymmetric labor market within household members, who share the feature that their job finding is stimulated by the partner's job separation, particularly during economic downturns. We uncover a job search-theoretic basis for this added worker effect and find that this effect is stronger with more children in the household. We also show that excluding wealth and savings from the analysis and estimation leads to underestimating the interdependency between household members. Our analysis shows that the policy goal of supporting job search by increasing unemployment transfers is partially offset by the partner's lower unemployment and wages.

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Gender Gaps in the Spanish Labor Market

eee2016-32 | J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, Ignacio Marra de Artíñano, 24/10/2016

The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the malefemale differentials in Spain in terms of labor force participation, working conditions and professional development in order to identify the major obstacles in achieving gender equality. Data were gathered from a wide range of national and international sources, and a comparative analysis with other Western European countries was carried out in order to put the Spanish case into a wider context. Despite the great progress that has been made in the last two decades, which has brought Spain on a par with other European countries, the gender gap is still large in a wide number of areas. These are, for the most part, reflected in the existing gender pay gap, as well as in working conditions involving temporality, undesired part-time work, and over-qualification. Furthermore, women are highly under-represented in positions of power and authority in both public and private organizations and there is a high level of occupational and sectorial segregation. The uneven distribution of tasks at the household level is one of the most important factors behind gender inequality in the labor market, one that is likely further hindering the participation of women in the labor market and contributing to widening the gender gap in many other dimensions. Potential gender policy measures to correct the aforementioned situation in Spain are also discussed.

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Retos de la Economía Española: El Mercado de Trabajo

fpp2016-11 | Ángel de la Fuente, 28/06/2016

El mercado de trabajo español se enfrenta a dos grandes problemas: un problema estructural que viene de atrás, ligado a una normativa y unas instituciones laborales muy rígidas y a un elevado grado de dualidad, y un problema, esperemos que transitorio pero con grave riesgo de enquistamiento, de una elevadísima tasa de paro de larga duración. En esta nota se discuten brevemente ambos problemas y lo que se ha hecho y/o se podría hacer para intentar solucionarlos o al menos mitigarlos.

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El mercado de trabajo en el inicio de la recuperación

eee2016-23 | Consuelo Abellán, Florentino Felgueroso, 26/06/2016

En este artículo se ofrece un breve análisis de la evolución reciente del mercado de trabajo en España. La sección 1 está dedicada a la ocupación, las horas totales de trabajo y las tasas de empleo. A continuación, se presentan distintos indicadores del desempleo, los flujos de entrada y salida del paro al empleo, y el paro de larga duración. La sección 3 se dedica a las ocupaciones y actividades económicas en las que se concentra la mejora del empleo en este inicio de recuperación económica. La sección 4 se dedica a la evolución del empleo según tipos y duración de los contratos. Y finalmente, en la sección 5, se analiza la evolución del mercado de trabajo desde una perspectiva de genero, edad y nivel educativo.

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El efecto de la Reforma Laboral de 2012 sobre la dualidad y el empleo: Cambios en la contratación y el despido por tipo de contrato

fpp2016-06 | J. Ignacio García-Pérez, 07/03/2016

En el presente trabajo se analizan los efectos de la última reforma laboral sobre el empleo y sobre el grado de dualidad del mercado de trabajo español. El trabajo replica un estudio de la OCDE realizado pocos meses después de la reforma, confirmando sus resultados positivos con una muestra sustancialmente más larga, e introduce algunas extensiones que corroboran la robustez de los resultados y permiten afinar las estimaciones del impacto de la reforma dependiendo del tamaño de la empresa y de otras variables como la duración en el desempleo, la edad y el género de los trabajadores.
El impacto de la reforma se cuantifica mediante la estimación con datos individuales de la Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales de modelos estadísticos que relacionan las tasas de salida del desempleo al empleo y del empleo al desempleo con las características personales y el historial de cada trabajador, con indicadores de la situación macroeconómica general y del estado del mercado laboral provincial y con una variable dicotómica que distingue entre antes y después de la reforma.
Los resultados del estudio sugieren que la reforma ha tenido un efecto positivo sobre el empleo por dos vías: aumentando la probabilidad de salir del desempleo hacia un empleo indefinido y reduciendo la probabilidad de despido para los trabajadores con un contrato temporal, seguramente porque las empresas están haciendo uso de las nuevas medidas de flexibilidad interna puestas a su disposición de cara a acomodar sus necesidades de ajuste.

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The impact of family friendly policies in Spain and their Use throughout the business cycle

eee2015-25 | Sara de la Rica, Lucía Gorjón, 28/12/2015

The aim of this paper is to evaluate various aspects of a family friendly law (Act 39/99) approved in Spain in 1999, which grants parents the right to reduce their work-time schedule for childcare issues. Moreover, those who resort to that law enjoy higher protection against dismissal than other workers, which may encourage workers to use the law as a form of job protection, particularly in recession periods. We first test the direct impact of the law, i.e. whether its passing increased the use of work- time reduction for childcare issues. We find that the use of such measures did indeed increase by around 18%. Second, we test whether the passing of the law led to strategic behavior from employers, in the sense of restricting indefinite contracts to potential users of the law to limit the use of work-time reduction. We find that this is indeed the case. Finally, we test whether this law was resorted to more or less in the recent downturn than in the previous economic upturn. We find that its use decreased by around 13% in the recent downturn, which is not consistent with the view that workers would use the law more intensively during recessions for job protection reasons.

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Differences in Job De-Routinization in OECD countries: Evidence from PIAAC

dt-2015-11 | Sara de la Rica, Lucas Gortazar, 19/11/2015

The aim of the paper is threefold. First, we compute differences on the degree of de-routinization of job contents across a harmonized and hence comparable sample of Anglo-saxon, many European and even Asian advanced countries. We do so by using very precise information on job contents at the worker level, which allows for job task heterogeneity within occupations. Second we assess the extent to which computer adoption leads to the observed difference in the degree of de-routinization of job contents. Third, we test whether higher degrees of technology adoption are associated to higher wage inequality. Our results show remarkable differences in the degree of de-routinization of job contents across countries, being computer adoption at work a key significant driver of such differences. In particular, ICT use at work explains 41% (25%) of the cross-country unconditional (conditional) differences in de-routinization of job contents. Regarding the impact of adoption technology on wage inequality, our results indicate that although differences in ICT adoption explain an important and significant part of wage differentials, the effect is homogeneous for all the wage distribution, implying that we cannot find a significant association between wage inequality and technology adoption.

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Gender Differentials in Unemployment Ins and Outs during the Great Recession in Spain

eee2015-18 | Sara de la Rica, Yolanda F. Rebollo-Sanz, 06/09/2015

The Great Recession has had a disproportionately negative effect on working men compared to working women in many OECD countries and led to gender convergence in aggregate unemployment rates. In this paper we seek the sources of this recent convergence by using Social Security records on individuals to study the determinants of unemployment ins and outs over the course of a whole business cycle, i.e. 2000‐2013. We focus on Spain – a country hit hard by unemployment increases in downturns. Our results indicate that unemployment outs are crucial in understanding changes in unemployment rates in Spain. Furthermore, the huge drop in unemployment outs in the recession, particularly for men, has led to unprecedented levels of long‐term unemployment, which has come to account for 64% of total unemployment. Negative state dependence emerges as a key barrier to job access for the long‐term unemployed and hence the rate of unemployment is expected to remain high for many years, even if there is a strong recovery.

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Reforma laboral de 2012: ¿Qué sabemos sobre sus efectos y qué queda por hacer?

fpp2015-04 | J. Ignacio García-Pérez, Marcel Jansen, 27/04/2015

La reforma laboral de 2012 acaba de cumplir tres años en febrero. Desde muchos ámbitos se han hecho afirmaciones sobre los efectos de la misma. Según las apreciaciones más optimistas, la reforma explica por qué el mercado laboral español fue capaz de crear más de 400.000 empleos en 2014 con una tasa de crecimiento de escasamente el 1,4%. Al contrario, los más escépticos ponen el énfasis en la pérdida neta de empleo desde su aprobación para argumentar que la reforma causó un deterioro en la situación de los trabajadores en España. Ambas apreciaciones parten de premisas distintas sobre cuál hubiera sido la evolución del mercado laboral sin la reforma. De hecho, hasta la fecha solo contamos con evidencia provisional sobre el impacto de la reforma. Lo que falta es una evaluación rigorosa de sus efectos que permite establecer en qué medida la reforma ha conseguido sus objetivos.

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The Effects of Employment Uncertainty, Unemployment Insurance, and Wealth Shocks on the Retirement Behavior of Older Americans

dt-2015-06 | Hugo Benítez-Silva, J. Ignacio García-Pérez, Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 19/04/2015

Unemployment rates in developed countries recently reached levels not seen in a generation, and workers of all ages are facing increasing probabilities of losing their jobs and considerable losses in accumulated assets. These events have increased the reliance that most (older) workers have on public social insurance programs, exactly at a time that public finances are suffering from a large drop in contributions. Using administrative and household level data, we empirically characterize a Life-Cycle model of retirement and claiming decisions in terms of the employment, wage, health, and mortality uncertainty faced by individuals. We analyze the role of three intertwined factors in the recent evolution of work and retirement benefits claiming behavior in the United States; namely, higher unemployment uncertainty, higher unemployment benefits, and wealth shocks. We find that higher employment uncertainty reduces work and increases early claiming, while higher unemployment benefits mildly reduce work and reduce claiming at early ages. Finally, negative wealth shocks increase both early claiming and work. When all these factors are combined, the final outcome is a mild decline in labor supply and relatively little variation in early claiming.

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Series enlazadas de los principales agregados nacionales de la EPA, 1964-2014

eee2015-07 | Ángel de la Fuente, 12/03/2015

En el presente trabajo se recopilan y extienden diversas series históricas de los principales agregados nacionales de la Encuesta de Población Activa (EPA) y se construyen nuevas series anuales homogéneas de las mismas variables para el período 1964-2014 corrigiendo algunas de las rupturas que persisten en las series históricas más recientes del INE.

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On the effectiveness of short-time work schemes in dual labor markets

eee2015-06 | Victoria Osuna, J. Ignacio García-Pérez, 27/02/2015

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of short-time work (STW) schemes for preserving jobs and reducing the segmentation between stable and unstable jobs observed in dual labour markets. For this purpose, we develop and simulate an equilibrium search and matching model considering the situation of the Spanish 2012 labour market reform as a benchmark. Our steady-state results show that the availability of STW schemes does not necessarily reduce unemployment and job destruction. The effectiveness of this measure depends on the degree of subsidization of payroll taxes it may entail: with a 33% subsidy, we find that STW is quite beneficial for the Spanish economy because it reduces both unemployment and labour market segmentation. We also perform a cost-benefit analysis that shows that there is scope for Pareto improvements when STW is subsidized. Again, the STW scenario with a 33% subsidy on payroll taxes seems the most beneficial because more than 57% of workers improve. These workers also experience a significant increase in annual income that could be used to compensate the losers from this policy change and the State for the fiscal balance deterioration. This reform saves the highest number of jobs and has the lowest deadweight costs.

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Are Unemployment Benefits harmful to the stability of working careers? The case of Spain

eee2015-04 | Yolanda F. Rebollo-Sanz, J. Ignacio García-Pérez, 16/02/2015

Unemployment insurance is usually found to show negative effects in the transition from unemployment to a new job. However, the extent to which workers’ careers might improve or deteriorate as a result of theunemployment insurance system is not immediately clear. This paper addresses the effects of certain aspects of this system on employment stability by jointly accounting for benefits endogeneity, dynamic selection issues and occurrence dependence. The analysis is undertaken for a dual labour market, such as the market in Spain, where temporary and permanent workers differ with respect to numerous individual and labour market characteristics. We find that non-insured unemployed workers experience a greater rate of transition to employment than insured workers. But we also find that benefits encourage job stability for temporary workers not only by increasing subsequent job tenure but also by increasing the probability of entering into a permanent contract. Finally, we get that shortening the duration of the benefit entitlement period does not seem to lead to significant gains in overall employment stability, which increases at most by 4.3%.

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Políticas activas de empleo: una panorámica

fpp2015-01 | Sara de la Rica, 15/01/2015

La provisión de formación, subsidios salariales y asistencia en la búsqueda de empleo para los desempleados han sido actividades que han formado parte de las políticas públicas de los Estados Modernos de Bienestar durante las últimas tres décadas. Estas políticas públicas no son exclusivas de los países europeos, pero sí se puede afirmar que desde mediados de los 90 Europa lidera la implantación de estas actividades si este liderato se mide en términos del esfuerzo que realiza en términos de gasto público. Otros países anglosajones, como Canadá, Australia o Estados Unidos disponen también de este tipo de actividades desde hace más de tres décadas, pero lo cierto es que el gasto público que estos países realizan es muy inferior a lo que desde mediados de los 90 se viene realizando en muchos países Europeos. Se podría decir, por tanto, que las Políticas Activas de Empleo, desde mediados de los 90, son una preocupación sobre todo para la Unión Europea.

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Dual labour markets and (lack of) on-the-job training: PIAAC evidence from Spain and other EU countries

eee2014-14 | Antonio Cabrales, Juan J. Dolado, Ricardo Mora, 25/11/2014

Using the Spanish micro data from the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), we first document how the excessive gap in employment protection between indefinite and temporary workers leads to large differentials in on-the-job training (OTJ) against the latter. Next, we find that that the lower specific training received by temporary workers is correlated with lower literacy and numeracy scores achieved in the PIAAC study. Finally, we provide further PIAAC cross-country evidence showing that OJT gaps are quite lower in those European labour markets where dualism is less entrenched than in those where it is more extended.

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Los parados de larga duración en España en la crisis actual

eee2014-10 | Brindusa Anghel, Sara de la Rica, 28/09/2014

El colectivo de parados de larga duración supera la mitad del total de desempleados en nuestro país – alrededor de 3,5 millones de individuos. En este artículo se caracteriza al colectivo por características demográficas así como tipo de empleo anterior y se estiman los factores que más afectan a la salida hacia un empleo. Los menores de 25 años con bajo nivel educativo y los mayores de 45 años se enfrentan a especiales dificultades en la salida hacia un empleo. La adecuada combinación de políticas activas con políticas pasivas como el subsidio se hacen imprescindibles para lograr políticas eficaces.

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The Impact of the Great Recession on Employment Polarization in Spain

eee2014-09 | Brindusa Anghel, Sara de la Rica, Aitor Lacuesta, 15/09/2014

This article analyzes changes in the occupational employment share in Spain for the period 1997-2012 and the way particular sociodemographic groups adapt to those changes. There seems to be clear evidence of employment polarization between 1997 and 2012 that accelerates over the recession. Changes in the composition of the labour supply cannot explain the increase in the share of occupations at the low end of the wage distribution. Sector reallocation may have partially contributed to explain the polarization process in Spain during the years of expansion (1997-2007) but it is a minor factor during the recession. The polarization of occupations within sectors observed, especially during the recession, appears to be related to a decline in routine tasks which is compensated by an increase in occupations with non-routine service contents, which are found both in the low and high end of the wage distribution. Instead, jobs with a higher degree of abstract contents do not appear to increase their share in total employment during these 15 years. The paper finds that this process has affected males more strongly than females because of their higher concentration in occupations more focused on routine tasks. Among males, for workers under 30 years old, we find a decrease in the share of occupations with more routine tasks which turns into increases in those with more abstract content and particularly with more non-routine service content. Instead, male workers over 30 years old seem to remain in declining occupations to a greater extent. Females of different ages are not affected by the abovementioned changes.

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Can Fixed-Term Contracts Put Low Skilled Youth on a Better Career Path? Evidence from Spain

dt-2014-08 | J. Ignacio García-Pérez, Ioana Marinescu, Judit Vall Castello, 17/08/2014

Fixed-term contracts have low firing costs and can thus help low skilled youth find a first job faster. But do these workers get a more rewarding career? Using Spanish social security data, we compare the careers of native male high-school dropouts who entered the labor market just before and just after a large liberalization in the use of fixed-term contracts in 1984. Using a cohort regression discontinuity design we find that the reform raised the likelihood of working before age 20. However, by substantially increasing the number of employment spells it reduced workers' accumulated employment up to 2006 by almost 200 days and accumulated wages by 22%. These effects are concentrated during the first 5-10 years of these young workers’ career. We conclude that widespread fixed-term contracts have harmed the careers of low-skilled workers.

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Delaying the normal and early retirement ages in Spain: behavioural and welfare consequences for employed and unemployed workers

dt-2014-06 | Alfonso R. Sánchez, J. Ignacio García-Pérez, Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 01/06/2014

In this paper, we explore the links between pension reform, early retirement, and the use of unemployment as an alternative pathway to retirement. We use a dynamic rational expectations model to analyze the search and retirement behaviour of employed and unemployed workers aged 50 or over. The model is calibrated to reproduce the main reemployment and retirement patterns observed between 2002 and 2008 in Spain. It is subsequently used to analyze the effects of the 2011 pension reform in Spain, characterized by two-year delays in both the early and the normal retirement ages. We find that this reform generates large increases in labour supply and sizable cuts in pension costs, but these are achieved at the expense of very large welfare losses, especially among unemployed workers. As an alternative, we propose leaving the early retirement age unchanged, but penalizing the minimum pension (reducing its generosity in parallel to the cuts imposed on individual pension benefits, and making it more actuarially fair with age). This alternative reform strikes a better balance between individual welfare and labour supply stimulus.

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